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TOPIC: how are football betting odds set

how are football betting odds set 2 months 3 weeks ago #33056

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п»їPointspreads Explained: How bookmakers set the betting line.
Pointspreads Explained.
Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil, a math teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s. The bettor bets that the difference in the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than a value specified by the bookmaker.
For example, if a bettor places a bet on an underdog in an American football game when the spread is 3.5 points, he is said to take the points; he will win his bet if the underdog's score plus 3.5 points is greater than the favourite's score. If he had taken the favourite, he would have been giving the points and would win if the favourite's score minus 3.5 points was greater than the underdog's score.
As you all know, when you place a straight wager on the pointspread of a football or basketball game, you need to risk $110 to win $100. The $10 difference between risk and payout is known as the juice, or the vigorish, or “vig” and is the reason sportsbooks are in business. Sportsbooks essentially act as a broker between you and another player who wants to bet on the other team and collects the small commission as compensation for brokering the deal and handling the transfer of funds between the two of you. This is important to understand, because it leads me to the biggest misconception in sports wagering. The pointspread is not the handicapper’s predicted margin-of-victory, but it is in fact the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. Understanding that little tid-bit is the first step towards taking advantage of the numbers.
"Linemakers," says former BoDog chief Rob Gillespie, "are divided into two groups, oddsmakers and bookmakers".
Oddsmakers deal in a theoretical world because they don't actually take bets on the lines that they publish. Oddsmakers make their money by selling their lines to media outlets, sportsbooks, etc. These are the lines you see in your local newspaper or hear on the radio. The line from Las Vegas Sports Consultants is a good example of one of these. The LVSC line is the one distributed to Las Vegas Sportsbooks. The lines don't change very much from day to day, because there are no direct wagers placed on these lines, and as such, there are no line moves required to try and balance action.
On the other hand, bookmakers deal very much in the real world, as they take bets on the lines they publish. These lines then move as a result of wagering, because the books seek to balance action in an effort to minimize risk and maximize the vig collected. This fundamental difference is one of the main reasons that the lines you see in your newspaper are not the same lines you get when you deal with a sportsbook. It is worth mentioning that time is also a factor. The lines in your paper were probably accurate when they were submitted to the editor, but in the amount of time that passes from pre-production to when you read the paper, injuries, weather and other factors can dramatically shift the spread.
Linemakers use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the pointspread. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, etc. Others simply have a feel for the games and produce a number out of thin air. However, most line makers use power ratings or some derivation.
Power ratings involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate a pointspread. For example, one set of ratings I saw this week had Miami rated 57 at home and Indianapolis rated 53 on the road, so the difference results in a 4 point line. Another set has Miami rated 77, Indianapolis rated 75, and gave a 3.5 point advantage to the home team so it predicted an opening line of 5. The actual line opened at 6 at some books, and was bet down quickly to 4.5, so it appears that 6 was too high. There are no standards for how to derive these ratings, and predicting actual outcomes with better accuracy than the majority of the betting public is your key to success.
Some sportsbooks base all their lines on their own internal linemaking, but the majority of books rely either solely on oddsmaking services or a combination of external service and their own handicapping. BoDog Bookmakers handicap the games themselves, compare these results to the opening lines out of Vegas and then adjusts for the historical action of their own player base before coming up with a consensus opening number for each game. From there, the numbers are moved only to balance action or to account for special circumstances such as weather, injuries or the like.
The key advantage bettors have is that they do not have to wager on every game, but can pick and choose wagering opportunities. The bookmaker however, puts up a number on hundreds of events each and every week. In a typical NFL week, there are 14 to 15 games for you to choose from and there are even multiple betting opportunities on each game. You may not have a good feel for every game, but you most likely see several games where you are confident that one team will cover with better than 53% probability. This is what handicappers refer to as an "overlay" or "getting value", which is the starting point of every handicap.


NFL Las Vegas Odds.
Spread В· Money Line В· 1st Half Page 1 В· Page 2.
02/07 6:30 PM 101 Kansas City 102 Tampa Bay -3ВЅ -10 57ВЅu-10 -3 -15 56u-10 -3 -15 56u-10 -3 -10 57ВЅu-43 -3 -20 56u-10 -3 -20 56u-10 -3 -20 56u-10 -3 -15 55ВЅo-13 -3 -15 56u-10 Buy Picks.
Where to Bet: WynnBET FanDuel BetMGM DraftKings Fox Bet Bet365 PointsBet Unibet BetRivers All.
How to read Super Bowl 55 Odds.
The Kansas City Chiefs wil meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Feb. 7, 2021.
The Chiefs opened as -3.5 betting favorites while the Buccaneers are 3.5 underdogs.
After early wagers came in, most operators are holding Kansas City -3 (-120).
If you were to wager on Kansas City -3, you would have to lay 5/6 odds (Bet $120 to win $100) instead of your normal 10/11 juice (Bet $110 to win $100).
The return on Tampa Bay would be even-money (1/1) and a $100 wager would return $100.
The total or over-under on Super Bowl 55 is hovering between 56 and 57 points.
How to read NFL Las Vegas Odds.
The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to entice bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as backing them means giving up several points.
Ex. Bet $110 to win $100 (10% juice) Ex. Bet $100 to win $90.91 (10% juice)
It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Examples seen on the NFL Vegas Odds pages could include -08 , -12 , -15 and -20 . The -10 price is the most common value in the industry while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would fall into the -08 category.
The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally found outside of the state Nevada. If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make NFL bets.
Another number that’s posted on the NFL Las Vegas is the total or ‘over/under’ for the specific matchup. If the favorite is designated as the home team, then the total will be listed above and vice versa if the visitors are favorites.
All of the above numbers are listed next to the teams, and before each matchup is a Rotation number. The NFL Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time.
NFL Open Line.
One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. If you’re betting on the NFL or any other sport, it’s a great idea to view the open line first.
VI Consensus NFL Line.
How do I bet on the Super Bowl?
We know that you can bet on the Super Bowl and all of NFL Futures or bet on the NFL Draft at any time of the year, but what’s the process? The future wager or the “Odds to Win” bet on the Super Bowl is correctly selecting a team to win an event that takes place at a later time. A bettor will have his wagered money tied up until there is an outcome and bettors will receive fixed odds when they place the wager. In the case of the Super Bowl, you’re not a winner or loser until you see zeros on the clock in the final game.
Most sportsbooks offer different ways to read to Super Bowl Odds. In the fractional NFL Futures Odds format below, you simply take the odds and multiply by the amount wagered.
Ex. Green Bay (8/1) to win the Super Bowl.
The Packers are listed as an 8/1 betting choice to win the Super Bowl. If you wager $100 on Green Bay to win the NFC and they capture the championship, then you would win $800 (8 Г· 1 x 100). Your online betting account would then credit your account $900, which includes your win and stake ($100).
If you are in a state where online betting is legal, we encourage you to check out our sportsbook directory to find the most trustworthy and reputable sites and mobile apps to place your Super Bowl bets.


Betting Odds explained: How are football odds calculated.
• by Football Whispers.
Understanding betting odds is the most crucial factor in sports betting . The quality of the odds you are getting is essential, and if you don't know how to calculate them on your own, you should learn. Not understanding the odds is the main reason people lose funds in the long run. In our article, we would help you learn more about football betting in general, and how to understand odds better, and how bookmakers work.
How do betting odds work? Odds explained.
Calculating the odds is a long and hard process, but if you get the hang of it, you would be better equipped when you place bets in the future.
Analyzing the Data.
Data analysis is the first and most crucial step in the process of calculating the odds. Bookmakers usually hire specialists, like traders and odds compilers to compile all the data possible and make sense of it. They have the best tools possible and work with the best software to ensure that they get near-perfect results and objective statistical evaluation of each game and the possibilities. How likely is it that an event will occur during the match? That's why these people answer every day by providing odds for hundreds of thousands of games in different sports. The best people work on the most popular football events, such as Bundesliga, English Premier League, FIFA World Cup, UEFA Champions League, and other specials markets such as Next Manager to leave. These days there is just too much information for an average person to take in, so bookies employ these specialists.
Cash Projections.
The next step after calculating each outcome's possibilities is to include the cash projections into the equation. Bookmakers use advanced algorithms to calculate how much cash flow would be placed on a specific market. In addition to that, they have a database of past cash projections that helps them calculate the number better. You might ask yourself, ‘Why are cash projections so important?' Well, cash projections help bookmakers keep an individual balance on each outcome and bet, so they don't mix up anything and end up losing a lot of money. This eliminates certain risks of losing money, and bookmakers aren't too fond of losing money even to their customers. Cash projections are a part of the odds, and they help market the events as well. Thanks to cash projections, bets that wouldn't usually see the light of day would attract a few more customers because the cash flow projections were added to the mix. Whether the margin is low or high, it depends on the popularity of the sport or event.
The Margin.
After bookies have calculated the odds and how much money they would stand to make from the matched, they need to post the odds. But unfortunately, odds don’t leave the printing press without an adjustment first. They go through what’s called a “margin” or sometimes even called “juice.” this mysteries factor allows bookmakers to make their money. We all know that bookies don’t offer fair odds to their customers, that’s why more and more people prefer to wager on betting exchanges instead. The bookmakers use the margin and provide overall odds that are slightly lower than what they should be. If both outcomes have the same percent probability, then the odds should be even (2.0), which means that if you wager £100, you will stand to make £200 if you win. Unfortunately, the actual odds bookies provide are lower than the conventional ones, which means that they might offer something like 1.5 or 1.9 depending on their generosity instead of even odds. The difference between the odds is the “margin” itself. The best online bookmakers have a margin of about three to five percent, while land-based shops have a higher percentage because they pay more significant taxes than online platforms.
Calculating Football Odds – Frequently Asked Questions.
Why do odds change?
he odds change because of physical events during the match itself, like a red flag, player change, injury, penalty, goal, or other events that might change the match's outcome. Another reason why the odds change is because of the initial cash projections, whenever they have to be adjusted.
How can punters benefit from the football odds?
There are a couple of advantages to punters. He first one is that bookies may be wrong. We are so sure that we are getting the best that they provide. But that's not necessary. Analysts can be wrong; they are people too. Bookies focus their best resources on more significant leagues and don't put as much work in minor leagues and competitions. The odds there might not be the best, and there could be mistakes. Another way to benefit is to know where to place bets. When large sums of money are poured into one place, there is a vortex, and opportunities arise where you can place bets and get good wins off them.
Have bookies made a big mistake with calculating the odds in the past?
=Yes, they have. At the start of the 2016 season, all kinds of bookies placed different odds in the style of 5000/1 on Leicester City to win, and in the final, they did. That year bookmakers lost millions or square billions of dollars because they were all wrong when calculating the odds correctly.
Our Final Conclusion.
Odds are a significant part of the bookmaker business. They are the bread of the bookies because that's what they take out money to make a buck. Calculating the odds is a hard and essential task, and bookmakers only give the job to the most professional individuals in their field. These people gather the necessary data, add the cash flow projections to it, and calculate the odds' margin before they release the price. And they do that every day for millions of events across multiple sports and competitions. Bookmakers have made mistakes in the past, but they aren't that notable.
Read more how to get the best betting odds here.


NFL betting explained: NFL odds, point spreads, and more.
Are you ready for some football? The NFL season is underway and there is no better time than now to prepare yourself for betting on the NFL.
If you are a person looking for the top NFL picks each week for betting on the NFL, it makes sense to know where you can turn to find football betting tips as well as other valuable information that can assist you to have greater success.
Whether it is the NFL latest lines, NFL best bets, or football betting tips, you want to ensure that you are going to the best football betting sites to get your information. It is your money, after all, and you don’t want to throw it away on bad NFL picks.
While there are a lot of seasoned veterans out there who understand all the intricacies on how to bet, there are still those who are looking to get their feet wet. Maybe they know how online sports betting works, but haven’t had much success in the past. A little bit of knowledge can take you a long way, and that is what you will find here.
Understand the basics of NFL betting.
If you are new to betting on sports, understanding the terminology is a good place to begin. While you may have had a lot of success betting on the NFL at work or with friends, your move to real NFL betting probably means that you want to have more fun on your own. This is where knowledge is power. The more you know and understand about NFL betting, the more likely you are to be able to win.
There are several different types of bets that you can place on any game. These include:
Moneyline bets Betting on the point spread Prop bets Performance betting Futures betting.
While there are other kinds of bets you could make out there, these five categories cover most of the types of football wagers you can make. So, here’s a brief look at each way you can make your NFL picks.
Moneyline.
Moneyline is the simplest type of bet for you to make. These bets are nothing more than the NFL odds on who will win the game. The margin of victory is not included in these types of bets.
The moneyline will also include the NFL over/under picks. This gives you the expected total of the game and allows you to bet on whether you believe the total number of points scored will go over or under.
Point spread.
NFL point spreads are set by oddsmakers. This is the final outcome they expect one team to have over the other. For example, if the New England Patriots are squaring off against the Miami Dolphins, you may find that the spread for this game is set with New England at -4.
What this means is that oddsmakers expect New England to win by four. If you choose Miami, you are actually getting four points, meaning that if the Patriots win 27-24, you are a winner. This is another way you can win with NFL betting lines.
You can bet on the quarter and first half lines as well, which will have a spread and an over/under. If you know that a team is much better in the first half or you expect them to keep it a tight contest, choosing the halftime lines may be the way to go.
Prop bets.
These are unusual kinds of bets that often have very little to do with the final score. During the Super Bowl, you will see countless numbers of these bets, including anything from how long the national anthem will last to what television commercial will air first.
There will be prop bets related to the game as well. This includes such things as who will score the first touchdown, will a field-goal kicker make an attempt longer than 50 yards, or who will be called for the first penalty?
Performance betting.
These types of bets are focused around specific categories by individual players or teams for performances. You can bet on how many touchdowns a quarterback will throw, how many rushing yards a player will have, or how many total sacks the team may have. These kinds of wagers give you a lot of options for your NFL picks.
Futures betting.
Futures betting allows you to make choices about events that will happen as the season goes along. For example, you can place a bet on who will likely win the Super Bowl, be named the NFL MVP, or how many regular season wins a particular team will have. You can use the betting odds to make wagers during the NFL playoffs as well.
Parlays and teasers.
Before leaving this area, we did want to provide one additional type of wager that combines several kinds of bets in one, including NFL lines, the spread, and totals. In the parlay, a person bets on a few different combinations, but can only win if all of their choices are correct. The teaser is very much like the parlay, except for the fact that you can increase your odds by putting points down to help see your bet come to fruition.
For example, in the parlay, if the line was -13 and you took the favorite, you would lose if your team was victorious by 12. However, you can decrease that amount in the teaser by putting six points down, creating a new line of -7. While it decreases the risk and increases your chances of being right with your NFL picks, you still need all of your bets to be correct to win.
Choosing the right NJ sportsbook for NFL betting.
Now that you understand how to play and make the right types of bets, it is important to know where you want to go to place your sports bet. First off, there are several online betting sites that are available to you, but not all will offer the same kinds of promotions and opportunities.
Best N.J. sportsbook sign-up offers Betting site T&Cs Offer BetMGM T&Cs apply, 21+,NJ only If first bet loses, get up to $500 in free bets Borgata T&Cs apply, 21+,NJ only Risk-free first bet up to $300 PointsBet T&Cs apply, 21+,NJ only Deposit $50, bet with $150 Resorts T&Cs apply, 21+,NJ only First bet matched up to $250 SugarHouse T&Cs apply, 21+,NJ only First deposit match bonus up to $250.
Understanding the brands legal status.
As gambling has become legal across the country, you may also find that there are casinos in your area that are offering the opportunity for you to come in and place a wager there. You no longer have to ask yourself is betting legal in New Jersey, as sports wagers are legal across the entire state now.
We also want to mention to you that when betting it is important that you bet responsibly. You should never be willing to wager money you simply don’t have, especially if you are believing that you are just one big bet away from turning around your fortunes. If you are really in that desperate of a situation, maybe it is time to step back or seek additional help.
There are several sportsbook websites on the Internet, and there are many that will offer gambling in your state. You are legally able to wager on your favorite NFL picks in the state of New Jersey.
Comparing NJ sportsbook offers.
When choosing a good sportsbook, you want to begin by looking at the different betting sites offers that are available. If you are new to that site, it is likely that they will offer you a number of different incentives to entice you to start making wagers with them. Some of these promotions can be quite beneficial to you and may include perks such as:
No deposit bonuses First deposit bonuses Risk-free bets Referral bonuses.
No deposit bonuses.
If you have ever been to a casino to gamble for the first time, you have likely been offered $20 free to gamble for the first time. They want you to start hitting those machines and will pay you to do so. You are likely to find that there are some sportsbooks out there that will allow you to bet on the NFL without having to deposit any money at all. This gives you a chance to get used to their system without spending any of your own money.
First deposit bonuses.
Many sites will offer you a one-to-one return on your deposit when betting on the NFL for the first time. This means that for every dollar you deposit into your account they will deposit a dollar up to $250. Some go as high as $500. If you are able to deposit a great deal of money at first, you may want to look at one of these sites.
Risk-free bets.
These types of bets are just what they sound like. You are able to make wagers on NFL games without having to put any money into it all. You win if you made the right NFL picks.
Referral bonuses.
Promotions are not the only reason to choose a particular website, however. Most of these online betting sites have experienced oddsmakers on hand which can provide you with quality picks.
They will look at the NFL betting lines, and recommend what they believe to be the best selections of the week based upon the football odds. While you don’t have to go with this, it is always nice to know that you can get some free sports picks from people who are experienced in the industry.
Making progress in NFL betting through practice.
We want to leave you with two final tips. Before jumping into online football betting, it is important that you get a little practice in. Just as those amazing athletes need to get themselves ready for the upcoming season, get yourself ready.
If you are going to bet on NFL games, do a couple of practice weeks. Decide that you will practice with the NFL odds to see how good you are at betting. Choose games that you are sure you would win at, and see how good you do.
Final advice.
In addition, try not to bet with your heart. We all have our favorite teams and our favorite players, but when you decide that this is how you are going to bet, you may lose more than you win. When you are choosing your NFL picks, you want to look at how oddsmakers have determined the odds.




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