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п»їNFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Divisional Round, 2021: Go Over in Buccaneers vs. Saints.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every NFL game during the 2021 Divisional Round 10,000 times with surprising results.
The Kansas City Chiefs were the top team in the AFC during the regular season and earned the No. 1 seed in the NFL playoff bracket. While they're the 2021 Super Bowl favorites, the latest trends suggest you might want to avoid including them in your NFL bets and NFL picks this weekend. Since 2003, No. 1 seeds are just 12-20-1 against the spread in the Divisional Round.
The Chiefs are the biggest favorites of the week, laying 10 points against the Browns on Sunday with the over-under at 57. according to the latest Divisional Round NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the Saints are three-point favorites against the Buccaneers, according to the current NFL spreads, with the total at 52. All of the 2021 Divisional Round NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best 2021 Divisional Round NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest 2021 Divisional Round NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for the Divisional Round.
One of the top Divisional Round NFL picks the model recommends: Saints vs. Buccaneers goes over the total of 52. New Orleans began the season as four-point favorites over Tampa Bay in Week 1 and covered comfortably in a 34-23 win. That game also cleared the over (48.5) with plenty of room to spare.
Then, the Saints throttled the Buccaneers 38-3 as three-point underdogs in Week 9. That game went under the total (51), but the lack of offense from Tom Brady and the Buccaneers likely won't be duplicated. The trends point strongly to this game going over as well. In fact, these teams are a combined 20-14 to the over this season.
The model predicts that Alvin Kamara will put up over 100 yards of total offense and scores, while Brady will throw for almost 300 yards. The teams combine for 53 points, providing value on the over.
How to make Divisional Round NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the NFL Divisional Round schedule and says one team covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the 2021 NFL Divisional Round? And which team is a must-back? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below, then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for the Divisional Round.
Sunday, Jan. 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-3, 52)


NFL Las Vegas Odds.
Spread В· Money Line В· 1st Half Page 1 В· Page 2.
02/07 6:30 PM 101 Kansas City 102 Tampa Bay -3ВЅ -10 57ВЅu-10 -3 -15 56u-10 -3 -15 56u-10 -3 -10 57ВЅu-43 -3 -20 56u-10 -3 -20 56u-10 -3 -20 56u-10 -3 -15 56u-13 -3 -15 56u-10 Buy Picks.
Where to Bet: WynnBET FanDuel BetMGM DraftKings Fox Bet Bet365 PointsBet Unibet BetRivers All.
How to read Super Bowl 55 Odds.
The Kansas City Chiefs wil meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Feb. 7, 2021.
The Chiefs opened as -3.5 betting favorites while the Buccaneers are 3.5 underdogs.
After early wagers came in, most operators are holding Kansas City -3 (-120).
If you were to wager on Kansas City -3, you would have to lay 5/6 odds (Bet $120 to win $100) instead of your normal 10/11 juice (Bet $110 to win $100).
The return on Tampa Bay would be even-money (1/1) and a $100 wager would return $100.
The total or over-under on Super Bowl 55 is hovering between 56 and 57 points.
How to read NFL Las Vegas Odds.
The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to entice bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as backing them means giving up several points.
Ex. Bet $110 to win $100 (10% juice) Ex. Bet $100 to win $90.91 (10% juice)
It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Examples seen on the NFL Vegas Odds pages could include -08 , -12 , -15 and -20 . The -10 price is the most common value in the industry while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would fall into the -08 category.
The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally found outside of the state Nevada. If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make NFL bets.
Another number that’s posted on the NFL Las Vegas is the total or ‘over/under’ for the specific matchup. If the favorite is designated as the home team, then the total will be listed above and vice versa if the visitors are favorites.
All of the above numbers are listed next to the teams, and before each matchup is a Rotation number. The NFL Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time.
NFL Open Line.
One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. If you’re betting on the NFL or any other sport, it’s a great idea to view the open line first.
VI Consensus NFL Line.
How do I bet on the Super Bowl?
We know that you can bet on the Super Bowl and all of NFL Futures or bet on the NFL Draft at any time of the year, but what’s the process? The future wager or the “Odds to Win” bet on the Super Bowl is correctly selecting a team to win an event that takes place at a later time. A bettor will have his wagered money tied up until there is an outcome and bettors will receive fixed odds when they place the wager. In the case of the Super Bowl, you’re not a winner or loser until you see zeros on the clock in the final game.
Most sportsbooks offer different ways to read to Super Bowl Odds. In the fractional NFL Futures Odds format below, you simply take the odds and multiply by the amount wagered.
Ex. Green Bay (8/1) to win the Super Bowl.
The Packers are listed as an 8/1 betting choice to win the Super Bowl. If you wager $100 on Green Bay to win the NFC and they capture the championship, then you would win $800 (8 Г· 1 x 100). Your online betting account would then credit your account $900, which includes your win and stake ($100).
If you are in a state where online betting is legal, we encourage you to check out our sportsbook directory to find the most trustworthy and reputable sites and mobile apps to place your Super Bowl bets.


Parlay Strategy.
A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win.
What happens if there’s a push in a parlay? That bet will be taken out of the parlay and the payout will be reduced as if there were one fewer team in the parlay. So if you had a 4 team parlay and you got three picks cocrrect and the other was a push, you would be paid out the odds of a 3 team parlay.
Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts. See a recent parlay Kevin made at 5Dimes.eu and cashed in on!
Are Parlays Sucker Bets?
There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated.
The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are:
2 teams 2.6 to 1 3 teams 6-1 4 teams 10-1 5 teams 20-1 6 teams 40-1 7 teams 80-1 8 teams 150-1.
Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows:
Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91) Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65) Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97) Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31) Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41) Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51) Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70) Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15)
The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet.
What Does a Parlay Pay?
As I mentioned earlier, fixed parlay odds vary greatly between online sportsbooks. Here is some info on which sites offer the best fixed parlay odds:
3 team parlays pay 6/1 or $600 for every $100 bet. BetOnline.ag is the leader in the industry in 3 team parlay payouts.
Generally speaking, parlaying 5 teams or more teams is not a good idea; however, for sports gamblers looking for a lotto ticket, 5dimes.eu and Bookmaker.eu each offer up to 15 team parlays and have by far the best odds in the business on these.
True Odds Parlays.
1 Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake.
Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110.
As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense.
Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays.
1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors.
2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers.
3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites.
Parlays That Make the Most Sense:
Reduced Juice – BetOnline.ag offers 6.5 to one on three team parlays. This comes out better than betting sides at the -105 price standard reduced juice sports books offer. In sports such as NFL football where 50/50 wagering propositions are common, a sports bettor gets far superior odds by betting 3 team parlays at BetOnline.
Correlated Parlays – If a bookmaker was offering betting lines on both “will it be cloudy today?” and “will it rain today?”, if allowed, you’d be much better off betting either both as no, or both as yes, in a parlay bet as opposed to straight wagers. While this is a simplified example, there are plenty of times when outcomes are correlated in sports betting. For example, a handicapper might determine that if one team covers the spread, the game is more likely to go over or under the posted total. Also, during the final week of the NFL season, a certain team winning or losing the day game might result in a previously important night game now having no meaning in the playoff race.
Free Play Bonuses – Several online betting sites, for example BetNow, offer players free bets based on the size of their initial deposit. Free play bonuses are not the same as cash. The difference is that a bet made with cash returns both stake and win, where a bet made with a free play returns only win. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. So when using free plays to bet 3 team parlays, you’re getting slightly better odds, and also a chance to apply that free play stake to three different bets. This is common knowledge that 3 team parlays are a great use of free play bonuses.


Super Bowl parlay bets 2021: Three big value parlay predictions.
The Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers is just days away and our NFL betting expert has selected three Super Bowl 2021 parlay bets on offer.
For those that are unsure what parlay bets are, parlay betting allow you to combine multiple bets into a single, larger bet for better odds.
Most bookies are offering pre-made parlay bets for the Super Bowl, with these being easy to select and offering better returns than individual legs.
As well as this, bookies like BetMGM have unique 'One Game Parlay' tools which allow account holders to quickly and easily make their own parlay bets.
Ahead of the Super Bowl, our NFL expert has revealed his picks for the best of the pre-made Super Bowl 2021 parlay bets.
Super Bowl parlay bets: Our picks.
Already got an BetMGM account? Check out our list of the best Super Bowl betting sites for more great big-game betting offers.
Nothing out of the ordinary needs to happen for this bet to come in other than these two legendary quarterbacks having good games.
Both Brady and Mahomes have postseason averages close to the 300 yard mark, with Mahomes averaging 290 yards per game and Brady just behind with 286.7.
For this bet to win, the Chiefs simply need to win as they're on the moneyline, whilst Brady and Mahomes need to make at least 300 passing yards each.
If you like the look of this pick, a $100 bet with William Hill returns $340, a good return for a simple pick.
There is no doubting that Tom Brady will get his yards on Sunday, and this parlay allows you to back three Bucs players who’ll be on the receiving end of his passes.
Brate is the lowest risk here, as the veteran tight end has had a breakout postseason, managing at least three catches in his last three games.
Godwin is another low risk option, as in his last five games, he's managed five or more interceptions four times.
The slight question mark is with Evans. The 27-year-old undoubtedly has big game potential, as shown in the Wildcard round where he pulled in six passes for 119 yards.
As well as this, Evans has managed to make six or more interceptions three times in his last six games.
Evans definitely get the targets to put up at least six receptions, as in two of the three postseason games so far, he's had at least eight targets, whilst also having nine targets against the Chiefs in week 12.
For this parlay to win, Brate, Goodwin and Evans will all have to make at least three, five and six receptions respectively.
If you like the look of this parlay, a $100 bet with BetMGM returns $340, great odds considering the Bucs have Tom Brady and his legendary throwing arm at quarterback.
Tom Brady is averaging close to 300 yards per game, and Mahomes can certainly eclipse 320 passing yards with ease.
Brady and Mahones even managed to throw for 345 and 462 yards respectively when they met earlier in the season.
In addition, the 26-year-old is still receiving the majority of the backfield workload even with Ronald Jones returning from injury.
However, the Chiefs do have issues on their offensive line. Star tackle Eric Fisher is out, while center Daniel Kilgore’s status is uncertain due to safety protocols.
This weakened line, which will be under assault from the Bucs' Vea Vita and Ndamukong Suh, could see Mahomes flushed out of the pocket more often, which should provide more rushing attempts.
For this parlay to win, both Fournette and Mahomes will need at least 45 and 25 rushing yards respectively, with Brady and Mahomes then needing at least 300 and 320 passing yards respectively as well.
If you fancy having a bet on this parlay, a $100 bet with BetMGM will return a huge $1050, a great return for a bet looks like it should win with a bit of luck.




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