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Marc-Andre Fleury or Robin Lehner? Doesn’t matter in betting world.
The difference between the Golden Knights’ goaltenders isn’t enough to affect analysis of games, handicappers and bookmakers say.
In the gambling world, there’s little debate about Golden Knights goaltenders Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. Not because there’s a clear answer, but because the answer doesn’t matter.
There is virtually no drop-off between Lehner and Fleury, especially on full rest during the regular season, handicappers and oddsmakers say.
“The fans and the media are rocking the boat on this more than the players and bettors,” handicapper Alex B. Smith said.
Smith (@axsmithsports) said that for most NHL teams, the difference between the starting and backup goaltender is worth about 20 cents in the betting line, but he calculates no significant difference for the Knights.
When Smith ranked each team’s goaltender and backup this past week, he said he gave Fleury a 5 cent edge over Lehner based on the few games played this season. Instead of pitting the goaltenders against each other, Smith said it was more important to track how they match up against specific opponents.
“You could have a situation where Lehner is better against Anaheim or Fleury is better against Arizona,” he said.
Handicapper Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports) said he showed “no difference at all” between Lehner and Fleury.
“I’m much more concerned with depth and special teams production than who’s in goal,” he said.
The Knights acquired Lehner in a trade in February 2020, and he eventually took over the position from Fleury, starting 16 of 20 playoff games. Controversy erupted during the postseason when Fleury’s agent tweeted a photo of Fleury being stabbed through the back by a sword with coach Pete DeBoer’s name on the blade.
Lehner signed a five-year, $25 million extension in the offseason, and the Knights opted to retain Fleury to give them reliable depth in this shortened season.
The goaltenders have rotated with each game this season. Lehner is 2-1 with a 2.68 goals-against average, and Fleury is 2-0 with a 1.51 GAA. Last season, Lehner had a 1.67 GAA in the regular season and 1.99 GAA in the playoffs. Fleury had a 2.77 GAA in the regular season and 2.27 GAA in the postseason.
Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons agrees that on a night-to-night basis in the regular season, the difference between Lehner and Fleury is minimal, though he strongly favors Lehner, especially in the playoffs.
The market has moved against the Knights in the games Fleury started, but those changes aren’t as significant when the Knights are heavily favored in the -200 to -180 range, as they have been in every game this season, Salmons said. A better gauge will come in games against top teams such as Colorado and St. Louis, he said.
Lane said any moves against Fleury in his first two starts might also be attributed to bettors believing that Anaheim and Arizona would bounce back after losing the first games of the two-game series, regardless of the opposing goaltender.
In the end, Salmons said, Lehner vs. Fleury wasn’t something he had to worry about, especially given the way fans bet the games.
“They’re going to bet Knights and Knights goal line (-1½) no matter who’s playing,” he said.


How To Win at Sports Betting.
The statement I’m about to make will most certainly shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most of us are under the impression that everyone betting sports wins long term, so long as they bet often enough, this isn’t actually true.
Wait you’re not surprised? Of course you’re not! Everyone knows the bookmaker has an advantage so more times than not sports bettors lose. However, what if there was a way that the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage?
This is in fact possible.
Have you ever heard the term advantage player? This is a label gambling companies assign to players who only bet when the odds are in their favor.
Even though “on average” bookmakers have a 4.55% advantage on straight bets (2.38% @ -105), the key word is “average”; advantage players find bets where the bookmaker’s advantage is negative. Whether your goal is to be a sports betting pro, or just earn a little money on the side, the first step to winning is to stop making –EV bets.
If you understand what expected value, -EV, and +EV mean, go ahead and skip down to our advice on finding +EV bets. If you’re not familiar with this concept continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Explained.
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I’ll use an example. Let’s say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we’ll both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
Now let’s say I’m tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. What happens now is half the time I win $1.10 and half the time I lose $1.00. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I have a positive expectation (+EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the opposite, every flip of the coin is 5 cents –EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding +EV bets.
Finding +EV Sports Bets.
The reasons most sports bettors don’t spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it’s slightly time consuming, most have no leads how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it’s not actually fun. If you’re looking for something fun we suggest paint balling, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you’re looking to actually make money then you’ll need to know how to find +EV bets.
Teaser Betting Strategy – This is perhaps the easiest method a sports bettor can use to find bets with a positive advantage. When you also read our article on the current betting market, you’ll realize just before game time the lines are efficient. Teasers are based off the current betting lines, so no longer do you need to go do any deep analysis to find out whether as straight bet is +EV. Here find spots where teasers increase the win rate by enough and you’ll have a +EV bet. This is all described in our article on teaser betting strategy.
Prop Betting Strategy – Prop bets are generally considered the easiest wagering opportunity for sports bettors to beat. In our article on prop betting strategy I give a full break down of the prop bet “which team will score first”. After reading that article you’ll have enough information to start finding +EV bets on this specific prop. In time, as you get experience you’ll be able to solve other prop bet on your own and then beat them using as similar method to the one I show in the example.
Must Read Sports Betting Books.
If you’re new to advantage betting some books that will help you greatly with the basics are:
2) Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao.
Once you’re much more experienced and ready to take things to the next level then I strongly Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This is a book for advanced sports bettors and not a good read for anyone not already winning. It is heavily math, statistic and handicapping intensive. If you eventually decided on a career as an advantage player at some point down the road you’ll want to work to understand what Elihu D. Feustel shares in this book.
No matter what methods you use to find +EV bets, the information contained in our article on finding maximum value is a must read. Next, if you’re thinking about purchasing picks, read our article on winning without a tout. In that article you’ll also find some information on getting free picks. Use that with the earlier mention getting max value article, and shopping the market and you’ll likely be turning an easy, yet slightly time consuming profit.
With this out of the way let me now cover the easiest way to get your bankroll started: “Bonus Whoring”.
A Free Lunch in Sports Betting.
If you’ve heard the saying there is no such thing as a free lunch, well think again. Here are some bonuses that sports betting sites offer to players making their first deposit:
Bovada offers 10% cash bonus on bettor’s first deposit. The best thing about this bonus is it is instant and it’s cash (as opposed to free play). Also no crazy strings such as rollover, hold period etc, simply roll your initial deposit and 10% bonus over a single time and it is free and clear your own money to keep.
Here you can get up to $1,000 in free bonus money. Getting the max bonus is a multi step process. First sign up, and be sure to leave the Promotion Code field empty. Next follow the steps on our BetOnline Bonus page to negotiate a massive bonus with their live support.
When you combine +EV bets with free bonus cash, winning at sports betting is a cinch. The only piece of the puzzle you have left is protecting and growing your bankroll. Our best advice here, never wager more than a few percent of what you have on hand on a single game.
Once you have this all down, while it takes other sports bettors a lot of luck to win, the opposite is true for you. A bookie beating an advantage player who uses responsible bet sizing, keeps his composure during downswings while making only +EV bets, is quite difficult. Follow this and the only ways you lose is horrible bad luck!
We wish you the best of luck and know soon enough you’ll be shacking your head confused the same at us, whenever you hear the statement “most sports bettors lose” and clearly you won’t be on of them.
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:


Marc-Andre Fleury or Robin Lehner? Doesn’t matter in betting world.
The difference between the Golden Knights’ goaltenders isn’t enough to affect analysis of games, handicappers and bookmakers say.
In the gambling world, there’s little debate about Golden Knights goaltenders Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. Not because there’s a clear answer, but because the answer doesn’t matter.
There is virtually no drop-off between Lehner and Fleury, especially on full rest during the regular season, handicappers and oddsmakers say.
“The fans and the media are rocking the boat on this more than the players and bettors,” handicapper Alex B. Smith said.
Smith (@axsmithsports) said that for most NHL teams, the difference between the starting and backup goaltender is worth about 20 cents in the betting line, but he calculates no significant difference for the Knights.
When Smith ranked each team’s goaltender and backup this past week, he said he gave Fleury a 5 cent edge over Lehner based on the few games played this season. Instead of pitting the goaltenders against each other, Smith said it was more important to track how they match up against specific opponents.
“You could have a situation where Lehner is better against Anaheim or Fleury is better against Arizona,” he said.
Handicapper Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports) said he showed “no difference at all” between Lehner and Fleury.
“I’m much more concerned with depth and special teams production than who’s in goal,” he said.
The Knights acquired Lehner in a trade in February 2020, and he eventually took over the position from Fleury, starting 16 of 20 playoff games. Controversy erupted during the postseason when Fleury’s agent tweeted a photo of Fleury being stabbed through the back by a sword with coach Pete DeBoer’s name on the blade.
Lehner signed a five-year, $25 million extension in the offseason, and the Knights opted to retain Fleury to give them reliable depth in this shortened season.
The goaltenders have rotated with each game this season. Lehner is 2-1 with a 2.68 goals-against average, and Fleury is 2-0 with a 1.51 GAA. Last season, Lehner had a 1.67 GAA in the regular season and 1.99 GAA in the playoffs. Fleury had a 2.77 GAA in the regular season and 2.27 GAA in the postseason.
Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons agrees that on a night-to-night basis in the regular season, the difference between Lehner and Fleury is minimal, though he strongly favors Lehner, especially in the playoffs.
The market has moved against the Knights in the games Fleury started, but those changes aren’t as significant when the Knights are heavily favored in the -200 to -180 range, as they have been in every game this season, Salmons said. A better gauge will come in games against top teams such as Colorado and St. Louis, he said.
Lane said any moves against Fleury in his first two starts might also be attributed to bettors believing that Anaheim and Arizona would bounce back after losing the first games of the two-game series, regardless of the opposing goaltender.
In the end, Salmons said, Lehner vs. Fleury wasn’t something he had to worry about, especially given the way fans bet the games.
“They’re going to bet Knights and Knights goal line (-1½) no matter who’s playing,” he said.


Marc-Andre Fleury or Robin Lehner? Doesn’t matter in betting world.
The difference between the Golden Knights’ goaltenders isn’t enough to affect analysis of games, handicappers and bookmakers say.
In the gambling world, there’s little debate about Golden Knights goaltenders Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. Not because there’s a clear answer, but because the answer doesn’t matter.
There is virtually no drop-off between Lehner and Fleury, especially on full rest during the regular season, handicappers and oddsmakers say.
“The fans and the media are rocking the boat on this more than the players and bettors,” handicapper Alex B. Smith said.
Smith (@axsmithsports) said that for most NHL teams, the difference between the starting and backup goaltender is worth about 20 cents in the betting line, but he calculates no significant difference for the Knights.
When Smith ranked each team’s goaltender and backup this past week, he said he gave Fleury a 5 cent edge over Lehner based on the few games played this season. Instead of pitting the goaltenders against each other, Smith said it was more important to track how they match up against specific opponents.
“You could have a situation where Lehner is better against Anaheim or Fleury is better against Arizona,” he said.
Handicapper Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports) said he showed “no difference at all” between Lehner and Fleury.
“I’m much more concerned with depth and special teams production than who’s in goal,” he said.
The Knights acquired Lehner in a trade in February 2020, and he eventually took over the position from Fleury, starting 16 of 20 playoff games. Controversy erupted during the postseason when Fleury’s agent tweeted a photo of Fleury being stabbed through the back by a sword with coach Pete DeBoer’s name on the blade.
Lehner signed a five-year, $25 million extension in the offseason, and the Knights opted to retain Fleury to give them reliable depth in this shortened season.
The goaltenders have rotated with each game this season. Lehner is 2-1 with a 2.68 goals-against average, and Fleury is 2-0 with a 1.51 GAA. Last season, Lehner had a 1.67 GAA in the regular season and 1.99 GAA in the playoffs. Fleury had a 2.77 GAA in the regular season and 2.27 GAA in the postseason.
Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons agrees that on a night-to-night basis in the regular season, the difference between Lehner and Fleury is minimal, though he strongly favors Lehner, especially in the playoffs.
The market has moved against the Knights in the games Fleury started, but those changes aren’t as significant when the Knights are heavily favored in the -200 to -180 range, as they have been in every game this season, Salmons said. A better gauge will come in games against top teams such as Colorado and St. Louis, he said.
Lane said any moves against Fleury in his first two starts might also be attributed to bettors believing that Anaheim and Arizona would bounce back after losing the first games of the two-game series, regardless of the opposing goaltender.
In the end, Salmons said, Lehner vs. Fleury wasn’t something he had to worry about, especially given the way fans bet the games.
“They’re going to bet Knights and Knights goal line (-1½) no matter who’s playing,” he said.




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