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п»їThe 5 Worst Prejudices Interfering with Your Sports Betting Results.
The excitement we feel when gambling is inherent in our human psyche. Unfortunately, there are other aspects of the human mind that make people more likely to end up losing money on betting in the long run.
Call them psychological defects, philosophical fallacies, or just plain biases, but everyone is susceptible to these cognitive traits that work against the ability to think rationally. Sportsbooks use these to their advantage in order to outsmart the public. The good news is that if you’re able to identify these five sports betting biases, you can avoid them.
In this article, I’ll lay out five mistakes bettors make based on their cognitive bias and logical fallacies.
1 – The Gambler’s Fallacy.
This will be the most well-known of the bunch. The “gambler’s fallacy” isn’t just observed in sports gambling, it can be seen in nearly all forms of games based on chance. A basic definition of the phenomenon is, “the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future.”
If that explanation seems confusing, I’ll put it in real-world terms. The example most frequently used to illustrate the gambler’s fallacy involves flipping a coin. Each time you flip a coin, it’s either going to be heads or tails, a 50% proposition every time. The bias comes in when an individual believes past trials are going to affect future trials.
If you flip a coin five times and it comes up as heads all five times, is it more likely to be tails on the next toss? The answer, if you’re thinking rationally, is no. In fact, it has the exact same chance of being tails as it did on the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth trial before it.
This sports betting bias occurs when you consider the tendency to think that if a team has won (or lost) a few in a row, they’re due for the opposite to happen. In reality, the past doesn’t impact the future. If you’re betting on a final result to happen just because it feels like it hasn’t happened in a while, you’re falling victim to the gambler’s fallacy.
Many a bankroll has been compromised due to this cognitive bias. The solution? Simply evaluate everything independently of all previous games!
2 – Recency Bias.
Sports fans are known for overreacting to the most recent events that take place during the course of a season. It’s not unusual for a single game, or even a single play, to completely change the public opinion of a team or player.
While it’s important to take all information into account when making evaluations, it’s also important that you don’t put too much weight on the most recent event. For example, an NFL team can enter week 5 at 0-4, but if they win big in that fifth game, you can bet it will have a significant impact on their odds the following week.
“Recency bias” isn’t just a theory, it’s reflected in the way the public’s money lands and has a real impact on lines the following week. When you log on to your online sportsbook of choice, be sure to evaluate the game based on the current matchup and not the results of previous games to avoid this sports betting bias.
3 – Outcome Bias.
It’s widely-accepted that sports are inherently a results business. Making the right move or calling the right play doesn’t really matter if it doesn’t achieve the desired outcome. The same isn’t necessarily true in the world of sports gambling.
Allow me to explain. If you’re serious about making money betting on sports, you should be making your plays based on some information other than “it’s just what I was feeling.” With all the information in the world available at your fingertips, it shouldn’t be too difficult to do some quick research and find some numbers that support your plays.
Whether you’re making your bet based on a “fade the public” strategy or some other data, there should always be a method behind your gambling choices. With that being said, there’s no such thing as a perfect way to bet.
The difference between weekend gamblers and professional bettors, or “sharps,” is really just a few percentage points. This means that making smart plays is crucial as the margins are thin in this business. Making the right bets might not win every time, but they’ll win over time.
It’s easy to look back on bets you’ve lost and kick yourself for not making the bet you “know you should’ve made,” but that’s the wrong attitude. Instead, if you’re able to honestly say that you bet with the data on your side, there’s nothing to regret.
“Outcome bias” can lead to serious frustration and cause you to neglect your strategies. Much like a good pitch can still be hit for a home run, a good betting play can still lose.
4 – The Availability Heuristic.
The “availability heuristic” is similar to recency bias, but it has more direct impact on the decisions you make moving forward. It’s also the enemy of research and the hard data that can help you make the most educated decision.
This cognitive bias is to blame for those decisions you make due to your feelings and not actual data. It takes the latest, or most available information, and applies it to the decision-making process.
If you watched the Steelers play two great games during the NFL season and missed the three when they played badly, you’re more likely to have a distorted view of the team. It makes sense to you, because the information you have available in your mind suggests what you saw is the true representation.
The way to combat the availability heuristic is to throw out the idea that your “eye test” is worth more than the numbers. Only utilize your personal feelings when the data leaves you with a 50-50 proposition… And that rarely happens.
5 – The Affect Heuristic.
The “affect heuristic” is one of the most difficult sports betting biases for people to ignore, and they don’t even know it. While you may be unfamiliar with the term, you’re likely all too familiar with the phenomenon.
The affect heuristic is the phenomenon of making decisions based on your emotions instead of reason. It impacts nearly every facet of your life and is one of the hardest biases to overcome.
It’s the reason you bet on your favorite team to win even when it’s wrong. Beyond that, even if your favorite team isn’t involved, you may still be biased towards one side or the other based on your allegiances to certain players.
If you’re a sports fan, you’re always going to fall in love with certain storylines, root for underdog stories, and bet against the dynasties that have had command over leagues for years. However, when you’re putting your hard-earned money on the outcome, you can’t let your emotions cloud your judgement.
Conclusion.
The world of sports gambling is so analytical and number-driven that it can be easy to forget we’re talking about human beings and not our probabilities at the blackjack table. Separating your sports betting biases from your bets can be a difficult chore in itself. Unfortunately, it really isn’t an option.
The best defense against making bad decisions is always the time you should take to do your research before a play. With so much information available, there’s no excuse for betting on a team based on your hunches or feelings.
Remember, every single person is susceptible to the sports betting biases laid out above… When in doubt, fade the public.
Tim has been a sports fan for as long as he can remember. The Vermont native has lived in Las Vegas for the last two decades, and he uses his experience in the industry to try and give readers the best possible advice when it comes to betting on sports. Football is Tim’s primary area of expertise, but he also dabbles in other sports like horse racing and basketball. Tim uses his wealth of knowledge to try and make the reader a better bettor.


The Recency Report: NFL Wild Card Betting Market Movement.
Each week during the 2020-21 NFL regular season, The Lines provided a look at movement in betting markets. Both sportsbooks and bettors now can dissect the playoff teams and make determinations on which teams have the best chance to make and win this year’s Super Bowl.
No team that has played in the Wild Card round in the last seven years has made the Super Bowl, though that streak could be snapped soon considering only the No. 1 seeds in each conference now get a bye.
Here is a look at market movement ahead of Wild Card weekend, with six games occurring between Jan. 9-10.
NFL Wild Card odds 2021.
NFL Wild Card weekend market movement.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills – Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET.
The Colts (11-5) and Bills (13-3) kick off Saturday’s coverage at 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS. Winds are expected to be up to 10 MPH with temperatures at 32 degrees.
The game opened at Bills -6.5 and briefly hit -7 at DraftKings Sportsbook . However, PointsBet has held steady at the opener of Bills -6.5. PointsBet director of communications Patrick Eichner told TheLines that the Bills are:
Taking 87% of the bets and 77% of the handle The Over/Under dipped from 52 to 51 with 75% of bets and 58% of handle on the Over Buffalo has taken more bets than any other team for Wild Card weekend.
At FanDuel Sportsbook , the gap is even greater in support of the Bills with 80% of the bets and 86% of the money backing Buffalo. And 90% of the moneyline bets are also on Buffalo.
Bills player props have also drawn the most action at FanDuel:
At DraftKings it’s been all Bills.
“We are now loaded with Bills money at the current price and I don’t expect that flow to stop,” said DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello .
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET.
The Rams (10-6) and Seahawks (12-4) open the NFC coverage Saturday at 4:40 p.m. on FOX. Light winds with mid-40s temperatures and no precipitation is in the forecast in Seattle.
The NFC West division rivalry is expected to be a close contest with both defenses having a say in the outcome. Each team won low-scoring regular season games at home.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Seattle as a 3-point favorite (-120), and 72% of the bets and money are supporting the Seahawks. PointsBet reports good two-way action on the total so far with 53% of bets on the UNDER and 59% of money wagered on the Over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET.
The biggest point spread on Saturday is on the road favorite Buccaneers (11-5) over the WFT (7-9) at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC. Temperatures will be just above freezing (35 degrees).
“The Bucs are another top choice for weekend wagering,” Avello told TheLines . “Not a surprise as they have been betting the Bucs since March when it was announced that Tom Brady had found a new home.”
There was a big bet alert from FanDuel Sportsbook on this game, as publicity director Kevin Hennessy reported that, “FanDuel took a $100,000 moneyline bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -400.”
“This year’s Wild Card round boasts an uncommon amount of large spreads, with all six games currently being over a field goal,” said Matt Cosgriff , Director of Trading at BetMGM. “Public money is on most of the favorites. BetMGM will need a few underdogs to win.”
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET.
The Ravens (11-5) and Titans (11-5) play for the second time this season after Tennessee took a 30-24 overtime win at Baltimore in Week 11. Kickoff is at 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET.
Kickoff is at 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS. The Saints (12-4) are up to a 10-point favorite and moneyline of -510 at PointsBet.
“It’s absolutely insane that the Bears got in the playoffs,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said.
PointsBet opened the Saints as -10.5 favorites against the Bears (8-. But Chicago is supporting its team with Bears bettors in the majority as 59% of the bets and 70% of the handle are on Chicago.
“Much of that has to do with our Illinois betting market,” PointsBet’s Patrick Eichner told TheLines.
FanDuel Sportsbook has 59% of the bets and 64% of the money on the Saints with 92% of the moneyline bets on New Orleans. The total opened at 48 and dropped to 47 at PointsBet, and 73% of bets and 81% of money wagered is on the Over.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET.
The two AFC North rivals meet for a third time. The Browns (11-5) beat the Steelers (12-4) this past Sunday, though Pittsburgh was playing many backups in Week 17. The primetime Sunday night game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC.


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The Recency Report: NFL Week 14 Market Moves And Week 15 Lookahead Lines.
Each week, The Lines gives you a look at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good idea of which teams are true contenders to win this year’s Super Bowl and which teams will be going on vacation in January as we enter the home-stretch of the season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 14 and an early betting preview of Week 15.
NFL Week 14 market movement.
Odds shown here are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
The biggest Week 14 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines include:
The Pittsburgh at Buffalo game is a battle of first place teams and will be key when it comes to playoff positioning. The significant adjustment in odds from the Steelers being favored to being an underdog came after Pittsburgh lost at home to Washington this past Monday, 23-17. Later on Monday, the Bills followed with a win over the 49ers, 34-24. The over/under has dropped to and none of the last five Steelers games have eclipsed the total.
Baltimore (7-5) at Cleveland (9-3) features two of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. The Ravens are No. 1 in the league in rushing at 169 yards per game and the Browns are No. 2 at 158. Both teams average 32 rushing attempts per game, but it’s the Browns run defense that has performed a little better, allowing 104 rushing yards per game to the Ravens’ 111. The Browns have been playing better over the past month, going 4-0 while the Ravens have fallen flat going 1-3 in their last four games while dealing with more health and coronavirus issues. The Ravens did crush the Cowboys 34-17 this past Tuesday with 294 rushing yards and also buried the Browns 38-6 in Week 1. The data driven analysis site FiveThirtyEight gives the Browns a 92% chance to make the playoffs and the Ravens a 61% chance to make the postseason with Baltimore’s final three games against losing teams Jacksonville, New York Giants and at Cincinnati in Week 17.
The most popular teams and Week 14 spread bets as of Friday at DraftKings Sportsbook were:
Colts 85% of bets and 95% of money (handle) over Raiders Chiefs 85% of bets and 89% of money over Dolphins Texans 88% of bets and 84% of money over Bears Packers 85% of bets and 85% of money over Lions Saints 82% of bets and 81% of money over Eagles Cowboys 85% of bets and 84% of money over Bengals.
NFL Week 15 lines.
NFL Week 15 lookahead odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Game Opening Spread Current Spread LA Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 Raiders -3.5 Buffalo at Denver Bills -5.5 Bills Carolina at Green Bay Packers -8.5 Packers Chicago at Minnesota Vikings -6 Vikings Detroit at Tennessee Titans -8.5 Titans Houston at Indianapolis Colts -6 Colts Jacksonville at Baltimore Ravens -11.5 Ravens New England at Miami Dolphins -2.5 Dolphins San Francisco at Dallas 49ers -3 49ers Tampa Bay at Atlanta Buccaneers -2.5 Buccaneers Seattle at Washington Seahawks -3.5 Seahawks New York Jets at LA Rams Rams -13.5 Rams Philadelphia at Arizona Cardinals -6.5 Cardinals Kansas City at New Orleans Chiefs -3 Chiefs Cleveland at New York Giants Browns -3.5 Browns Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Steelers -11.5 Steelers.
Week 15 betting breakdown.
There is just one Week 15 contest between elite teams but it’s a huge one with the two conference favorites expected to make the Super Bowl.
Kansas City (-3) at New Orleans : The top two teams in our current power rankings and favorites to reach the Super Bowl may be the most wagered-on game of the month. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (-500) is now the clear favorite to win the league MVP award, and his stats are off the charts with a league-high 3,815 passing yards along with 31 TD passes and just 2 interceptions. The Chiefs offense is back to No. 1 in the league, averaging 427 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. Those stats are even stronger over Kansas City’s last three games as they’re averaging 483 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play.
Mahomes tops the QB ratings charts and he’s averaging a yard per pass play more against the blitz this season than a standard pass rush. The Saints pass defense allows 212 yards per game to rank No. 4 in the league and will be the toughest test of the season for Mahomes, who has passed for at least 318 yards in five straight games.
Saints QB Drew Brees ranks No. 3 in quarterback rating, but Brees has missed the last month after suffering 11 broken ribs and a collapsed lung against the 49ers in Week 10. However, Brees is expected to be ready and start against the Chiefs.
“Drew’s the guy and if he says he can go then he’s gonna go,” quarterback Taysom Hill told Pro Football Talk after Sunday’s Week 13 win over the Falcons.
In Brees’ absence, the Saints have relied more on their strength along the line of scrimmage. The Saints defense has held five straight opponents to 16 points or less, and the run defense is No. 2 in the league, allowing just 76 rushing yards per game at 3.3 yards per rush. New Orleans is up to No. 7 in the league in rushing offense (140/game), but over the past three games the Saints have averaged 200 per game on 38.7 rushing attempts per contest. Hill has averaged 58 rushing yards per game, but two of his three starts were against the Falcons’ bottom-tier defense. He passed for 465 yards in those two contests.
Can the Saints slow the Chiefs? Heading into Week 14, the Saints have won nine straight games while the Chiefs have won 22 of their last 23, including the postseason. This Bayou showdown could well be a Super Bowl preview.




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