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п»їSuper Bowl 2021 odds, spread, line: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs predictions, NFL betting favorite, expert picks, prop bets.
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Super Bowl LV is just one day away and the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to play on football’s biggest stage. Tom Brady will try to add to his NFL record book, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since Brady did it with the Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
See below for odds, picks, analysis and more for the 2021 Super Bowl. Plus, click here to get an EDGE with Rotoworld Premium for betting trends, live odds and more.
Super Bowl 2021 odds, favorite, spread, line.
According to PointsBet, the Kansas City Chiefs are this year’s favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Lombardi Trophy. See more on the point spread, moneyline and points total below:
Super Bowl 2021 prop bets.
Super Bowl LV expert picks, predictions.
Hayden Winks’ picks: The Super Bowl opening line started at Chiefs -3 with an over/under of 57.5 points, and I took the Chiefs and the under immediately after projecting a 30-24 final. The under is my favorite bet right now between the sides and total for a few reasons. Mike Florio’s pick via ProFootballTalk : Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 27 (Read analysis here, plus see more picks and predictions) Chris Simms’ pick: Chiefs to win over Buccaneers (Click here or watch the video above for Simms’ final score prediction) Peter King’s Super Bowl LV preview.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Week 12 matchup (Rotoworld)
The Week 12 Final Score Is Misleading.
The final score could’ve been closer to 38-24 if the Chiefs hadn’t coughed up a red zone fumble and settled for two red zone field goals, if the Chiefs kept their foot on the gas in the second half instead of chewing clock, or if Mike Evans hadn’t scored two garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter. This game was a textbook example of how the final score doesn’t tell the full story.
Super Bowl LV player projections from Hayden Winks (Rotoworld)
Kansas City Chiefs projections.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB : Patrick Mahomes‘ projection looks crazy — nobody ever projects for 350 yards — but the Chiefs are very likely to throw 35-50 times against the Bucs. (Projection here) Chiefs Wide Receivers : WR Tyreek Hill went so nuclear against the Bucs in Week 12 (12-263-3) that I spent the 30 minutes it took to clip all of his touches from that game (video). The Bucs switched up their coverages then, but Hill kept getting open. I don’t think the Bucs have a single corner capable of hanging with Hill when they go to Cover 3 or Cover 1 man. (Projection here)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers projections.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers QB: Tom Brady also projects well. The Bucs may run the ball early — Kansas City’s defense faced the 28th-highest neutral pass rate this season because the Chiefs are typically light in the box — but Tampa’s projected game script favors a pass-heavy game as three-point dogs. (Projection here) Buccaneers Wide Receivers : Before the NFC Championship, Antonio Brown was reportedly “day-to-day”. It’s unknown if he’ll play in the Super Bowl, but I left him for now. Even at full health, Brown is not an every-down player. He lines up wide only in three-receiver sets and could even be pushed by Scotty Miller, who scored a long touchdown last game. (Projection here)
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Super Bowl Betting and Odds.
While it hurts just to write this down, the Packer’s season was officially ended two weeks ago by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in heartbreaking fashion, which seems par for the course when it comes to Packer’s conference championship appearances. To distract ourselves let’s take a look at the upcoming game and this week we will review the Super Bowl betting lines and odds going into Sunday.
Spread- Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites (-105)
A healthy Mahomes leading this KC Chiefs team is unstoppable and you won’t catch me putting money down against them. Patrick Mahomes has absolutely lit the entire league on fire since becoming the starter and while he will be facing down the undisputed G.O.A.T. (so far) in Tom Brady, KC has too many weapons to be contained and a play-caller that won’t ever let them take their foot off the gas.
Over/Under- 56 Total Points.
The weather may play a factor here with there being a strong likelihood of thunderstorms in the area for the Super Bowl. While both teams are lead by uber-aggressive play-callers in Andy Reid and Bruce Arians (respectively), prevailing conditions favor the under here.
The Super Bowl always has some of the most entertaining prop bets as well- check them out here:
Opening Coin Toss- Heads (-101) or Tails (-100)
Team to Make the First Field Goal of the Game- Chiefs (-115) or Bucs (-105)
Total Sacks In Game- O/U 4.
Total Passing Yards Brady- O/U 306.5.
Total Completions by Tom Brady – O/U 306.5.
Receptions by Mike Evans- O/U 4.5.
Receptions by Chris Godwin- O/U 5.5.
Total Rushing Yards by Leonard Fournette- 48.5.
Total Passing Yards Mahomes- O/U 331.5.
Total TD Passes Mahomes- O/U 2.5.
Receptions by Tyreek Hill- O/U 6.5.
Receptions by Travis Kelce- O/U 7.5.
Longest Reception by Tyreek Hill- O/U 27.5 yards.


Super Bowl 55 Betting Odds: Chiefs And Buccaneers Popular Bets, Player Props And Sportsbook Insights.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 29: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass in the . [+] fourth quarter during their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Kickoff is closing in for Super Bowl 55 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. At many sportsbooks, the Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite, and the over/under has dipped down to 56 points. But at select leading sportsbooks like FanDuel, the Chiefs are a 3-point favorite (-120) with a total of 55.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs are still taking the most Super Bowl spread bets and money. In fact, FanDuel Sportsbook reports that 67% of the spread bets and 80% of the money is on the Chiefs less than 72 hours before Sunday’s kickoff.
According to John Sheeran, FanDuel Sportsbook director of risk and trading, the betting activity and Super Bowl action is enormous.
“We’re expecting between three to four times the handle that we took last year,” Sheeran told 670 The Score radio in Chicago. “Regulated sports betting is bigger now in the U.S. There is massive growth in New Jersey, and we’ll do another 50% on top of what we did last year in sports betting (handle). We expect to see continued growth across all states.”
That includes in Illinois, where sports betting launced last summer. ”Illinois has been incredible,” Sheeran added about sports betting interest in the Prairie State.
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Super Bowl 55 Betting Data and Prop Bets.
When asked about the the most popular bets on the Super Bowl, Sheeran said.
“Normally we’ll see about 80% of the money between the three core markets - the spread, moneyline and total - in that order,” Sheeran said. Right now we’re seeing about 5-to-1, or nearly 85% of the spread money on the Chiefs. About 60% of the moneyline action is on the Buccaneers. The total is taking near 15% of the total money wagered, and about 60% bias towards the over.”
Despite that comment just two days ago with the total at 56.5, FanDuel has since dropped the over/under to 55.5 points.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (-105) is the favorite to win back-to-back Super Bowl MVP awards. He’ll have even more pressure on him this game with Kansas City’s two starting offensive tackles sidelined and out of the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay ranks No. 3 in pressure rate (27.9%) and generated the fourth-most sacks in the league this season (48). The Bucs also rank No. 5 in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA metric, and will have cornerback Jamel Dean back after he missed the Week 12 contest against Kansas City.
Super Bowl News and Betting Insights.
Another handicapper and analytics expert through my contacts recommends over 40.5 passing attempts for Patrick Mahomes. In the Chiefs 27-24 Week 12 win over the Buccaneers, Tampa Bay built leads of 17-0 and 27-10. Mahomes passed for season highs of attempts (49), completions (37) and yards (462). Tampa Bay has made a number of defensive adjustments since that contest including on coverage schemes after WR Tyreek Hill torched the Bucs on 13 catches for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns.
When asked about a prop bet of interest on 670 The Score radio, Sheeran deferred to a text from a friend who provided some reasoning with the offensive tackles out for the Chiefs. Despite some turf toe concerns for Mahomes, he may be on the move and running more with the Bucaneers defensive front pressure.
The recommendation was on QB Patrick Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards, which is now up to 21.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mahomes will be the focus whether he’s running or passing the Chiefs to another Super Bowl victory.


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Super Bowl LV betting odds: Mahomes, Brady, Gatorade and other prop bets we like.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
We are less than one week away from Super Bowl LV and if you are reading this you no doubt know that one of the most entertaining parts of Super Bowl week is being able to bet on pretty much everything you can think of.
How long will the National Anthem take? What songs will the halftime performer sing? What will the first commercial be?
We've singled five player-related props we like, as well as a couple of those fun non-game related props at the bottom as well.
Mahomes somewhat surprisingly has just six regular season rushing touchdowns in his career, but in seven career postseason games he has four. This isn't a sure thing, but few things with the odds of a Mahomes rushing score — particularly as the first score of the game — are. The Chiefs really don't have a solid No. 1 workhorse running back anymore, and they're also dealing with some injuries to the offensive line. It stands to reason that Kansas City's QB may be on the move more than usual, and perhaps this will yield a scrambling touchdown.
Tyreek Hill over 92.5 receiving yards (-124)
This may not have the biggest payout, but it's a really tantalizing bet. The last time the Chiefs faced the Bucs, Hill went off, catching 13 passes for a ridiculous 269 receiving yards. He's collected 110 and 172 in two playoff games this winter. A simple slant across the middle, for someone with Hill's speed, can add up to a quick 15-20 yards (or more) pretty quickly. He should get close to 100.
Here's another one that can really multiply your money. In his last five playoff games, Kelce has seven TD catches. He's proven to be more than just a tight end this season and will give the Bucs fits trying to cover him throughout the game with a smaller cornerback or a slower linebacker. If the Chiefs are able to move the ball as much as we expect them to, Kelce should get multiple chances in the red zone.
Tom Brady throws INT (-161), first INT (-177)
Brady is fresh off throwing three second half interceptions in the NFC title game. He's 43 years old and probably at his best he's maybe 80% the quarterback he was in his prime. If Kansas City takes the lead and the Bucs are pressing, Brady will take more chances and he'll throw it to the wrong team. This wager may not have the best odds, but that's because it is very likely.
Leonard Fournette over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)
Fournette has broken this milestone in all three playoff games this postseason, emerging as the featured back over Ronald Jones. The Buccaneers will surely be looking to establish the run to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands, and Fournette should get enough touches to get 50 yards on the ground.
Opening coin toss (via DraftKings)
We would never bet this ourselves, but if you saw Uncut Gems and the drama that betting on an NBA jump ball gave to Adam Sandler's character's parlay, this can be a quick multiplier for any bet. The odds are as expected:
Heads Tails -103 -103.
Gatorade shower color (via PointsBet)
I did a little research and apparently two of the last six Super Bowls had a blue gatorade bath — so maybe that's the bet? Orange is the favorite and also was used in two of the last six championship coach baths.
Follow Evan on Twitter: @evan_macy.
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports.




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