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TOPIC: explain sports betting lines

explain sports betting lines 2 years 9 months ago #34221

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What do sports betting lines mean?
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If that sounds like you, we’re here to assist you. If you’ve stared at a board at a sportsbook or just seen spreads and moneylines on the Internet and been utterly confused, don’t worry. It’s not just you. Those numbers can be confounding.
But hopefully, once you’re done reading this, you’ll completely understand how they work. As you prepare to dive into the world of sports betting, here’s a breakdown of how the lines work, starting with …
Spreads.
It would be really easy to bet on a game if you could put money on a heavy favorite to win.
That’s where point spreads come in. Let’s look at an example:
In this case, you can bet on either two outcomes: you can put money on the Eagles to win the game by 4.5 points OR MORE, which makes them the favorites. Or you can bet that the Giants will either win or lose by LESS THAN 4.5 points. They’re the underdogs.
Now, sometimes the spread “moves” during the days leading up to the game. Perhaps the Eagles’ spread ends up being -3.5 (in which they must win by 3.5 points or more to give you a victory in your bet). Your bet all depends on whichever spread you bet on, whether it was when the Eagles were favored by 4.5 or 3.5 points.
If you ever see “PK” or “pick” next to a team, it means there’s no spread and you can bet on who will win, no matter what the score is.
Moneylines.
Let’s take that same example above but use moneylines:
The team with a minus symbol is the favorite, and the number is how much money you would need to bet to win $100. In this case, you would have to bet $200 on the Eagles in order to win an additional $100.
Note that you can bet any amount you want, but those numbers are always calculated and posted the same way, either in how much money you would need to wager to win $100 or how much money you could win by wagering $100.
If you’re betting on something like the team who will win the Super Bowl in the future, you might see it look like this:
New England Patriots — 3/1 Baltimore Ravens — 5/1 Kansas City Chiefs — 8/1.
If you were betting on the Patriots and their 3/1 odds, you would win $3 for every $1 you spend. So if you bet $50 on the Pats and they ended up winning the Super Bowl, you’d win $150 (plus your original wager) back.


Sports Betting Explained: What’s A Prop Bet?
With sports betting becoming more popular by the day, Super Bowl 55 is in line to be the event with the largest volume of wagering in history. It should be noted that sports betting is not legal in every state in the U.S. just yet, but with more and more states adding legal wagering to their docket, the level of interest is sky-high.
To that end, we are continuing a series of explainers on sports betting, following up on a general introduction to the space that explains different kinds of wagers, how odds are calculated, and much more. The second installment is timely when considering the Super Bowl as the backdrop, and it centers on the wide world of prop betting.
What is a prop bet, exactly?
The most common wagers on a sporting event are covered in our general intro, and they are directly linked to the outcome/score of the game. Those wagers include point spreads, over/under totals, and money lines but, again, they are focused on the actual result of the contest in a big-picture sense.
Prop bets (or proposition bets) are wagers that are not directly linked to the overall score or outcome. There are many ways to examine this space, but prop bets gained notoriety from the Super Bowl in many cases, with all eyes fixed on a single game and bookmakers looking for creative ways to entice the public into sinking more money into the action. Prop bets are still far less common than standard point spread bets or total bets, but they are gaining steam, especially in the world of offshore betting, and can be a lot of fun.
Standard Game Props.
At this point in 2021, game props are available well beyond the Super Bowl, but they can be quite simple and also a bit more complicated. One type of game prop would be an over/under listing on the longest pass play of the game (over/under 27.5 yards, for example). That means a handicapper could wager on either side of that number for the longest pass play, and the same applies for wagers like shortest touchdown, longest touchdown, total penalty yardage, and more.
That encompasses a great deal of the game prop market, but there are others to consider. For example, a prominent Super Bowl bet is whether the game will go to overtime, with “yes” and “no” offered. These yes/no bets are very easy to track, simply because it is clear whether the event takes place or not. Finally, there are team vs. team wagers that fall under a similar umbrella. Which team will have more rushing yards? Which team will score first? Which team will score last? Which team will kick more field goals? All of these bets could be (or have been) available for any game, with the bettor given the option to choose a side.
Player Props.
This may be oversimplified, but player props basically encompass any wager dictated by the performances of individual players. For example, a popular Super Bowl bet is which player will score the first touchdown, with sportsbooks offering sometimes long odds on various players, with only one able to cash a winning ticket. This could also be applied to basketball with which player scores the first (or last) point of the game, or to baseball with the first/last/most home runs of the night.
Those are broad bets that could pay lofty odds if things break just a certain way, but there are also more common over/under bets. The Super Bowl is, again, a good example here, with the ability to wager on the over/under for passing yards from Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. Bookmakers build lines for yards (passing, receiving, rushing, etc.), receptions, completions, carries, touchdowns and much more in the football space, with points, rebounds and assists in basketball and hits, strikeouts, and home runs in baseball. This is a more efficient market in recent years, simply because many smart people are now finding value, but these can also be entertaining and a way to track a “game within the game.”
Exotics.
This is the area where a gigantic game, i.e. the Super Bowl, really shines. One of the more famous examples is a large market on just how long the national anthem will be, from start to finish, before kick-off. Another could be tied to the coin toss, with people able to wager on “heads” versus “tails.” It can even be as weird as tracking what words the announcers say, or what color someone’s shoes are, or whether the Gatorade poured over the winning coach’s head is green, orange, blue, or a different color.
Yes, this is hilarious and often weird. Yes, it can also be delightful, but it certainly trends more to the “entertainment purposes only” genre of sports handicapping.


How To Read Odds.
Understanding betting odds is key to successful betting. If you do not understand betting odds and the probabilities that they imply, you will struggle to succeed in betting on sports long term.
You don’t need to be a math genius to succeed in betting on sports, but if you do not understand what betting odds reflect, you are setting yourself up for failure.
How to read American odds.
There are three popular odds formats:
Fractional Odds Decimal Odds American Odds.
For the purposes of this article, we will focus on American odds. Know your potential profits when you make a wager with this betting odds calculator.
American odds are presented as either positive or negative odds. The following is an example of American odds for an NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls.
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How to calculate implied probability.
As previously stated, understanding and calculating the implied probability in betting odds is key to long-term betting success at, for instance, Pointsbet Sportsbook.
So how do we calculate the implied probability in American odds?
Calculating the implied probability in positive American odds is quite simple:
So the implied probability of the Lakers winning the game is 0.4348 (or 43.48%). In this instance, the bookmakers believe the Lakers are a 43.48% chance of winning the game.
Calculating the implied probability in negative American odds is fairly straightforward:
So in our example, the Bulls are at odds of -140 to win the game. What is the implied probability of these odds?
So the implied probability of the Bulls winning the game is 0.5833, or 58.33%. In this case, the bookmakers see the Bulls as a 58.33% chance of winning the game.
Value bets.
As stated earlier, the key to successful betting is to bet only when there is value. In our example, we should only bet on either the Bulls or the Lakers if we determine that they are a better chance to win the game than what the odds represent.
If we believe the Lakers are a better chance to win than 43.48%, we should bet on them. If we believe the Bulls are a better chance to win than 58.33%, then likewise, we should bet on them.
Understanding betting odds is crucial to long-term betting success. Possessing an intimate grasp of betting odds and their implied probabilities is fundamental to profitable betting.
See real odds at online sportsbooks.
At many sportsbooks, you’re free to see the odds no matter what state you happen to be in. However, you can only place real money bets at online sportsbooks odds if you’re located in states that have legal sports betting.
However, if you want to bet on horses, you’re more in luck there! Many states allow for online horse racing betting and you can see odds at most of the big horse racing tracks around the world.
Betting Against The Odds.
In Summary: Betting Odds Explained.
Betting odds represent the probability of an outcome occurring and the return (profit) you will receive if your bet is a winner. It could be the likelihood of all of your final four betting picks being correct.
The probability represented by betting odds is often referred to as the ‘implied probability’. Understanding the implied probability is crucial. Why? Because you should only bet when you believe the probability of an outcome occurring is higher than the implied probability. But if you would like to learn more about betting odds and alternative odds formats, try this odds converter.
Let’s consider an example. Let’s say the New York Giants are facing the Washington Redskins in a regular season NFL game. The Giants are at odds of -110 to cover the betting line of -3.5 points. The probability implied in the odds -110 is 52.4%. You’ve done your research and have determined the Giants are a 60% chance to cover the -3.5 betting line. As 60% is greater than 52.4%, you have found what is commonly referred to as a ‘value bet’.
However, if following your research you determined that the Giants are only a 45% chance to cover the -3.5 points betting line, the implied probability of the odds is greater than your determined probability. You have not found a value bet and should not place a bet on the Giants.




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